Mitt Romney’s lead ‘collapsing’ as Newt Gingrich surges

Crunch time arrived in South Carolina with more grim news for Mitt Romney, whose nationwide lead is “collapsing” against a surging Newt Gingrich in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to new Gallup polling data.

The former Massachusetts governor played down expectations as South Carolinians readied to vote in Saturday’s crucial primary, acknowledging that what was seen as an easy win barely a week ago now may slip through his fingers.

The broader U.S. picture, meanwhile, suggests the traction former House speaker Gingrich gained in two feisty debate performances this week is beginning to translate coast to coast.

Romney’s lead over Gingrich shrank nationally from 23 percentage points to 10 points in the past five days, prompting Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport to predict the gap would narrow further still.

“Clearly, things are collapsing,” Newport told MSNBC.

However, “voter volatility” remain the watchwords in a wildly unpredictable primary season that has anointed and discarded a succession of Republican hopefuls.

Campaigning in the rain Friday, Romney described the South Carolina race as “neck and neck” and shrugged off the significance of losing here. But his remarks hinted that the tightening race may extend far into the spring before it is settled.

“From the very beginning, South Carolina is an uphill battle for a guy from Massachusetts,” Romney told reporters.

“We have a long process ahead of us — 1,150 delegates to get. I sure would like to win South Carolina, but I know that if those polls were right, regardless of who gets the final number, we’re both going to get a lot of delegates.”

Gingrich was uncharacteristically low-key on the campaign trail Friday, attending a tour of a Charleston children’s hospital with his wife Callista at his side.

The appearance provided a counterpunch of sorts to the fireworks of the night before, when Gingrich went ballistic at the top of a nationally televised debate when questioned on ex-wife Marianne’s unflattering details of his infidelity.

One overnight tracking poll released Friday showed barely 30 per cent of predominantly conservative, evangelical South Carolinians considered the marital accusations believable — good news for Gingrich if such attitudes translate into votes on Saturday.

Gingrich’s unlikely comeback appears to have galvanized the Republican Party’s conservative base as it looks to South Carolina as a firewall to halt — or at least delay — Romney’s path to the nomination.

Both men continue to pick up high-profile endorsements with each passing day. For Romney, Friday’s catch was Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who called Romney a “results-oriented conservative” best positioned to appeal to Democrats and independents in a general election against President Barack Obama.

Gingrich, for his part, welcomed the endorsement of action-movie hero Chuck Norris, who called Gingrich “the best man left on the battlefield who is able to outwit, outplay and outlast” Obama. Gingrich responded on Twitter, writing that Norris “will make an excellent Secretary of Attack.”

The sheer unpredictability of the race also suggests Romney could rebound by the time results are disclosed Saturday night, said Gallup’s Newport.

“We have seen more movement, more roller-coaster kind of effect this year than any other Republican primary in our history of tracking,” he said. “I think anything is possible. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility if Romney recovers. We’ll wait and see.”

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is gaining ground in the polls ahead of Saturday's Republican primary in South Carolina.

Gingrich battles rivals at GOP debate

Newly minted front-runner Newt Gingrich faced strong attacks from his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in a nationally televised debate on Saturday night.

The former House speaker appeared to come away from the contest bloodied but unbowed.

Rapped as a lifelong Washington insider by his closest opponent, Mitt Romney, Gingrich replied: "The only reason you didn't become a career politician is because you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994."

"That's probably true," replied Romney, who lost that Massachusetts Senate contest before becoming the state's governor in 2002. He then quipped that if he had achieved his childhood dream, "I would have been a football star all my life, too."

Texas Rep. Ron Paul and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann joined in the attacks on Gingrich, who now leads in polls nationally and in Iowa. The state's caucuses on Jan. 3 will kick off the competition for Republican National Convention delegates who will pick an opponent to President Barack Obama.

All six Republicans on stage assailed Obama's handling of the economy, the overriding issue of the election, yet split down the middle on legislation making its way toward a year-end vote in Congress to extend a Social Security payroll tax cut into 2012. Romney, Gingrich and Paul said they favoured it. Bachmann, Texas Gov., Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum said they opposed the measure.

Whatever the impact of their differences on the presidential race, the internal disagreement could well portend difficulties for legislation that Obama has proposed and Republican leaders in Congress view as essential if the party is to avoid being tagged for raising taxes.

The tone of the debate was generally respectful, the stakes ever higher as six rivals met onstage in the Iowa capital city. The debate was the 12th since the long campaign began and the first since Herman Cain's candidacy imploded after allegations of sexual harassment and an extra-marital affair.

Gingrich's personal life has become a campaign issue, too, and it came up briefly Saturday night. Asked whether marital fidelity was a valid concern for voters choosing a candidate, Perry said, "If you cheat on your wife, you'll cheat on your business partner. It's a characteristic people look at."

Gingrich, who has been divorced twice and has admitted past infidelity, agreed the issue was an important one, then added: "I've made mistakes at times and I've had to go to God for forgiveness."

While Gingrich got most of the attention, the other contenders sought to stand out.

Both Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann tried to link Romney and Gingrich, saying neither was a true conservative. Both Romney and Gingrich still face skepticism from the ultra-conservative tea party movement.

Bachmann referred repeatedly to "Newt-Romney," saying the two hold similar views on health care, illegal immigration, cap-and-trade legislation and the payroll tax cut extension.

Paul said he, unlike the others, often took lonely conservative stands in Congress. "I end up sometimes, believe it or not, voting all by myself, thinking 'why aren't there people paying attention?' "

On another issue brought up by Paul, Gingrich denied he had ever lobbied for Freddie Mac, a quasi-government agency that paid him at least $1.6 million to provide strategic advice.

Gingrich also defended his recent statement that Palestinians are an "invented" people. Several of his rivals said they generally agreed with his description, but Romney said that with the remark, the former speaker may well have made it more complicated for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to move toward peace with Palestinians.

He said it is important to show sobriety, care and stability, an unspoken accusation against Gingrich, adding, "I'm not a bomb thrower, rhetorically or literally."

Gingrich responded by declaring he was a conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan, a president who he said spoke the truth, as when he called the Soviet Union the "evil empire."

Gingrich's decision to invoke Kennedy, the late senator from Massachusetts, served as a dual reminder that Romney has been running for office since the mid-1990s and also that he lost to the man whose politics conservatives detested above all others.